基于快慢线票价一致的研究背景，分析城市轨道交通快慢车分线运营条件下乘客路径选择行为，按照乘客出行起讫点车站类型进行客流分类，考虑换乘时间和换乘次数对广义出行费用函数进行刻画，采用正态概率分布模型对案例中各类客流的路径选择概率进行求解。得出结论：快慢线列车开行比例较高情况下，当AB-AB类、AB-B类乘客乘坐慢车出行时间在21 min和41 min以上时，乘客将全部选择快车出行；而B-B类乘客在出行时间不低于52 min时才会考虑两次换乘方案。说明短距离出行时乘客倾向于选择直达方案；长距离出行时则更加倾向于选择能够实现快速出行的路径方案，尽管此种路径会牺牲一定的换乘次数，乘客会权衡换乘对总体出行时间的影响并选择最优路径出行。

Under the premise that the fare of the express and the local are the same, the route selection behavior for urban rail transit passengers under express/local line parallel operation was analyzed. The passengers were sorted by the types of their origins–and destinations, and the generalized cost model of travel route was constructed and improved by fully considering transfer time and the number of transfer. A probability distribution model based on the normal distribution was used to study passengers’ selective probability under express/local line parallel operation, and the case was solved and verified. The conclusions are that When the frequency of the express is very high, passengers AB-AB and AB-B all choose the express with the local-travel-time is not lower than 21 minutes and 41 minutes, while some of passengers B-B choose the local-express- local with the local-travel-time is more than 52 minutes. Therefore, passengers tend to make a direct route choice when travelling a short distance. Long-distance passengers are more inclined to choose the fast-arrival route after comparing the effect of the transfer process on the overall travel time.

U231

国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1201402)