在目前我国城市已运营的轨道交通线路中，实际客流与设计客流偏差较大的问题普遍存在。以西安地铁3号线为例，研究其现状客流特征，并与原设计客流对比，分析主要客流预测指标与实际值的偏差及原因。在综合考虑客流影响因素的基础上，提出3号线研究年度内各年客流预测推荐值，对其原客流预测进行校正。最后，结合3号线客流发展规律，对城市轨道交通规划设计及运营提出相关建议。在线路运营初期对客流趋势进行预测，为合理增购车辆、制定运营计划提供依据，为其他线路进行客流趋势预测提供参考。

At present, the deviation between actual and designed passenger flow is widespread in urban rail transit lines which are in operation in China. Based on the passenger flow characteristics of Xi'an Metro Line 3, the deviation between the main passenger flow forecasting index and actual value and its reasons are analyzed. Based on an analysis of the influencing factors on passenger flow, the recommended passenger flow value in each year of Line 3 is proposed to correct its forecast value. Considering the development of passenger flow in Line 3, some suggestions are proposed for the planning, design, and operation of urban rail transit. Prediction of the passenger flow trend in the initial operation stage provides a basis for the reasonable purchase of vehicles and formulation of operation plans and provides a reference for other lines.

U231.92