基于城市轨道交通系统(urban rail transit system，URTS)韧性理论，以“系统-扰动”二元为研究对象，从URTS的受灾视角，搜集2007—2018年中国大陆35座城市在城市轨道交通运营阶段发生的事故共计1 911起，对其受到的所有扰动进行归类分析，从事发年份、事故类型、事发城市、制式等方面探究事故发生的规律性。结果显示，运营事故总数在2015年达到峰值后逐年递减；4类事故中，技术扰动事故高频低损，人为扰动事故低频高损；运营历史越长、线网规模越大、制式类型越多、客流强度越大的城市，事故越多，事发频率越高；在各类制式中地铁事故占比最大，近年来地铁运营安全性持续提高。最后，结合事故的规律性，基于4种事故类型，从技术、管理和政策3个维度提出对应的解决方案。

This study analyzes urban rail transit accidents in China based on the toughness or resilience theory, focusing on “system disturbance,” using data from the Urban Railway Transportation Service (URTS), collected from the mainland in 2007-2018 from 35 cities with urban rail transit operations. A total of 1,911 cases were examined using disturbance classification analysis, for the year, accident type and the city, in order to explore the frequency of accidents. The results showed that the total number of operational accidents decreased each year after reaching a peak in 2015. Among the four types of accidents, technical disturbance is characterized by high frequency and low loss, while human disturbance is identified by low frequency and high loss. The study found that the longer the operation history, the larger the scale of the line network, the more the system types and the greater the passenger flow intensity, which resulted in a high incidence and frequency of accidents. In recent years, the safety of subway operations has been improving steadily. Finally, based on the frequency of accidents and the four types of mishaps, the corresponding solutions have been proposed based on three dimensions –– technology, management and policy.

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