[关键词]
[摘要]
随着中国经济进入新常态,城镇化和产业化的新形势将使城市轨道交通进入差异化发展阶段。从需求和能力两个角度,分析人口、财税、土地、金融等因素对城市轨道交通的影响,认为城镇人口增长、城市产业发展和政府财政能力将决定未来发展形势,中心城市及主要城市群将是主要市场,不同类型城市需求将有所差异,未来轨道交通制式将走向多元化以适应不同需求,客流效益、运营管理、投融资、综合开发等将更受关注,行业管理政策也应进行综合性、差异化、针对性的调控。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
With China’s economy entering a new normalcy, newly occurring urbanization and industrialization will force urban rail transit to enter a stage of differential development. This paper discusses the future development situation from the perspectives of demand and capability. Through analysis of the influence of population, taxation, land, and finance, it is believed that the development mainly examines the urban population growth, urban industrial development, and government financial ability. The central city and major urban clusters will be the main markets, and the demand for different types of cities will be different. In the future, the rail transit system will be diversified to meet different needs. Passenger flow benefits, operation management, investment and financing, and comprehensive development will be given more attention. Finally, industrial management policies should also be regulated and controlled in a comprehensive, differentiated, and targeted manner.
[中图分类号]
U231
[基金项目]