[关键词]
[摘要]
市域轨道交通从客流性质看包括城区客流、城郊客流和城区与辖县间的市域客流;从与地铁衔接看,有贯通运营、站点换乘等不同模式,其中,贯通运营模式将强化对市域客流及城郊客流的服务。为更准确地预测3类客流,支撑市域轨道运营模式决策,指出市域轨道交通客流预测需对传统“四阶段法”进行优化,应细分城区、城郊和市域3类客流,在出行生成、出行分布和方式划分等阶段进行分别建模,在流量分配阶段再汇总,进而应用国际流行的“拓展四阶段法”,新增反馈模块,将拥堵信息返回至前述阶段,以多次循环实现模型收敛平衡。以与无锡地铁1号线衔接的无锡至江阴市域轨道(简称锡澄线)为例进行了实例应用分析,验证了模型的可行性;对站点换乘和贯通运营两种模式进行比较。预测表明,在贯通运营模式下,锡澄线本线远期日客运量增长16%、高峰小时断面增长7.8%。较好地支撑了锡澄线运营模式决策,所提方法可为其他地区都市圈市域轨道交通客流预测提供技术参考。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Passenger flow in the metropolitan suburban rail includes urban passenger flow, suburban passenger flow, and intercity passenger flow. Regarding the operation mode when connecting to the subway, the hub transfer mode and the through operation mode are two possible choices, with the latter providing strengthened service for intercity and suburban passengers. To achieve more accurate forecasts and support better decision-making regarding the suburban rail operation mode, this study highlights that the prediction model for metropolitan suburban rail passenger flow needs to be further optimized on the basis of the “four-step model.” Passenger flow should be divided into three categories: urban areas, suburbs, and intercities. The trip generation, distribution, and mode choice steps should be performed for each of the three types of flows. After aggregation of the ODs of the above three types of flow, the traffic and transit assignment can be performed for all of them simultaneously. Furthermore, the extended four-step model widely used in advanced countries, which can feed back congestion to the whole model and dynamically balance the demand and supply, should be applied. The proposed improved model was applied to the case of the Wuxi-Jiangyin metropolitan suburban rail that will be operated with Wuxi Metro Line 1. The results verified the feasibility of the proposed model and showed that more passenger flows are expected under the through operation mode. Compared to the hub transfer mode, the daily passenger flow can grow by 16% and the peak-hour peak-section flow can grow by 7.8%. The proposed method can be applied to similar cases in other regions and better support operational decision-making.
[中图分类号]
U231
[基金项目]