为了避免单一故障场景下全自动运行系统弹性评估的片面性，采用蒙特卡罗的仿真方法，模拟系统遭受扰动以及性能下降程度的随机性，为全自动运行系统提供一种基于概率的弹性评估方法。以全自动运行线路燕房线为例，统计过去3年的信号以及综合监控系统故障数据，计算各设备的故障频率以及故障恢复时间分布。根据设备的故障后果为设备的性能下降划分等级，并根据故障数据，统计各性能下降等级发生概率。为每个性能等级设置“状态虚拟值”进行量化，设备的输出数据流权值与设备“状态虚拟值”相同，以系统总的数据流权值的变化表征系统性能的波动，采用基于“Zobel”的弹性量化方法，经过105次的模拟仿真，得到系统的弹性估计值为0.9893，同时分别对各设备进行105次受扰动仿真，得到系统关于各设备的弹性概率累积分布，同时得到CI、ATP以及ZC遭受扰动时系统的弹性分布较广，系统弹性可能出现较低值，转辙机以及轨道电路遭受扰动时系统弹性相对稳定，系统弹性保持在0.97以上。

To avoid the one-sidedness of resilience evaluation for automatic operation systems in single fault scenarios, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the randomness of system disturbance and performance degradation, and provide a probability-based resilience evaluation method for automatic operation systems. Taking the Yanfang line as an example, the fault data of the signal and integrated supervisory control systems in the past three years are counted, and the fault frequency and fault recovery time distribution of each piece of equipment are calculated. The performance degradation of the equipment is classified according to the failure consequence of the equipment, and the probability of each performance degradation level is determined according to the failure data. The “virtual value of the state” is set for each performance level for quantification. The weight of the output data stream of the device is the same as the “virtual value of the state” of the device. The fluctuation of the system performance is represented by the change in the weight of the total data stream of the system. Using the “Zobel” resilience quantization method, the estimated value of the system resilience is 0.9893 after 105 simulations. In addition, 105 perturbation simulations are performed for each device, and the resilience probability cumulative distribution of the system for each device is obtained. The results indicate that the resilience distribution of the system is wide when CI, ATP, and ZC are disturbed, whereas the system resilience exhibits a low value when the switch machine and track circuit are disturbed. In general, the system resilience is relatively stable, remaining above 0.97.

U231.1

北京市自然科学基金资助项目(L181006)