以部分已开通地铁的 38 个城市为研究样本，分析影响地铁申报的 GDP、市区常住人口、一般公共财政 预算收入和全年日均客运强度等指标的现状，并分别从横向和纵向角度分析地铁建设指标与 7 个社会经济指标的 相关性。结果表明：部分城市自身的财力和地铁运营能力尚显不足，在地铁建设规模和节奏上应合理把控；不同 城市的地铁建设指标与其 GDP、一般公共财政预算收入有较强线性相关；以北京为例的研究发现，同一城市不同 时期的地铁建设指标与其 GDP、人均 GDP、市区常住人口、一般公共财政预算收入和人均预算收入等指标高度 线性正相关，而与通勤高峰拥堵指数线性负相关。建立的多元线性回归模型反映出经济和人口是北京近 10 年地 铁建设的主要驱动力。该研究可为以后各城市根据自身社会经济水平合理控制地铁建设的申报进度以及促进城市 轨道交通有序发展提供参考。

In this study, 38 cities that had opened a subway by the end of 2019 were selected for analysis. We analyzed the status quo of the indicators affecting the introduction of subways, such as GDP, urban resident population, public budget revenue, and annual average daily passenger intensity. In addition, seven socio-economic indicators were analyzed and correlated with the subway construction index from the horizontal and vertical perspectives. The results showed that the financial resources and subway operating capacities of some cities are still insufficient, so the scale and pace of subway construction should be controlled realistically. The density of subways in different cities has a strong linear correlation with their GDPs and generalpublic financial budget income. However, taking Beijing as an example, the study finds that the subway construction index in the same city at different times has a high linear correlation with its GDP, per capita GDP, urban resident population, general public financial budget income, and per capita budget income, while it is linearly negatively correlated with the commuter peak congestion index. The established multiple linear regression model shows that economy and population have been the main driving forces of Beijing subway construction in the last ten years. The research will provide some reference for each city that should reasonably control the subway construction progress according to their own social and economic levels, and promote the orderly development of urban rail transit.

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