列车运行过程受到诸多扰动因素的影响，严重时引起列车运行延误，影响乘客出行。为了判别列车运行扰动、评估影响范围和程度，本文提出了基于城市轨道交通历史数据的分析方法。根据突发事件类扰动及其相关的列车运行、自动售检票等多源数据，分析扰动的产生和影响规律，包括扰动分类、原因和发生规律，以及扰动持续时间、空间范围和客流相对率。典型城市的案例分析结果表明：高峰时段更容易发生扰动事件，车辆故障最为常见，超过半数的扰动事件均能在30分钟内消除；扰动引起的延误主要发生在后续列车及经过的前方车站上；扰动下的客流量前半小时有所减少，后增加甚至超过常态标准客流量，到两个小时左右两者吻合。

The process of train operation is affected by many disturbance factors, which may cause train delay and affect passengers. In order to identify the disturbance and estimate the influence, a novel approach based on historical data of urban rail transit is proposed. According to the emergency disturbance and its related multi-source data, such as train operation record and automatic fare collection data, the generation and influence law of the disturbance were analyzed. The main contents include the classification, causes and occurrence law of the disturbance, as well as the duration, spatial range and relative passenger flow rate under the disturbance. The case study of a city shows that: disturbance events were more likely to occur in peak hours, and vehicle failure was the most common cause. More than half of the disturbance events could be eliminated in 30 minutes. The delay caused by disturbance mainly occurred on the follow-up trains and at the stations in front of the occurrence location. The passenger flows decreased in the first half hour, then increased or even exceeded the normal standard ones, which coincided with each other about two hours.

四川省科技计划项目(2020YFG0353)