结合列车全自动运行系统的弹性评估，提供了一种基于贝叶斯网络模型的评估方法。根据列车故障前后的性能变化曲线，总结系统弹性的四种能力，探究影响四种能力的影响因素，为影响因素的定量选取了合适的评价指标作为贝叶斯网络的最底层节点。对指标制定打分表，获取专家的打分结果作为指标层的先验概率输入，同时选择恰当的隶属度公式作为条件概率的计算方法，获得贝叶斯网络的条件概率表，建立列车全自动运行系统的贝叶斯网络模型，定量评估系统弹性，同时通过对目标节点进行敏感度分析，提出提升弹性的改进意见。

In order to further improve the safety level of the fully automated operation system, an evaluation method based on the Bayesian network model is provided for the resilience evaluation of automatic train operation system. According to the performance change curve before and after train failure, four kinds of system resilience capabilities are summarized. Based on these four resilience capabilities, the influencing factors of these four capabilities are explored, and the appropriate evaluation index is selected as the bottom nodes of Bayesian network. The appropriate membership formula is selected as the calculation method of conditional probability, the conditional probability table of Bayesian network is obtained, and the Bayesian network model of automatic train operation system is established to quantitatively evaluate the system resilience. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis of target nodes is carried out to explore. According to the results of sensitivity analysis, some suggestions are put forward to improve the resilience.

全自动运行系统运营场景建模与完备性研究