在界定城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性概念与分析其形成机理的基础上，通过大量案例和相关文献，识别出对城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性产生影响的多个因素，从敏感性、适应性和暴露性三个维度建立系统动力学模型，定性与定量分析各影响因素间的因果关系，并选取实际案例验证该模型的适用性，并对模型中的常量进行系统动力学仿真分析，识别出城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性的关键影响因素。仿真结果表明，人员沟通有效性、特许权协议合理性和社会资本经济实力会对城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性产生显著影响，在项目中要重点关注这三个因素。

On the basis of defining the concept of vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP project and analyzing its formation mechanism, through a large number of relevant cases and literature, multiple factors affecting the vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP project are identified. The system dynamic model is constructed from three dimensions of sensitivity, adaptability and exposure, and the causal relationship among various influencing factors was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Then a practical case is selected to verify the applicability of the model, the constants in the model are simulated and analyzed to identify the key factors affecting the vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP projects. The simulation results show that the communication effectiveness of personnel, the reasonableness of franchise agreement and the economic strength of social capital have a significant impact on the vulnerability of the project, and these three factors should be focused in the project.

陕西省教育厅软科学研究计划一般项目“环保类PPP项目利益主体行为、社会风险与动态控制研究”（2021KPM149）；教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“PPP项目利益主体引爆性行为演化机理与控制策略研究”（21YJA630078）））