为研究广州地铁三号线未来客流演变趋势和客流压力缓解办法，本文首先分析了三号线现状客流特征，从运输组织层面探讨三号线Y型交路方案优化的可能性，然后立足线网规划中提出的三号线、十号线拆解改造的设想，基于广州市交通模型分析未来年不同轨网供给条件下不拆解情形、拆解情形两种运输形式对客流的影响。结果表明：（1）当前三号线客流压力在运输组织层面优化空间较小，不拆解情形下三号线未来几年仍将面临较大的客流压力，三号线北延线最大断面满载率将达140%以上，体育西路最大换乘量将超过60万人次/日，但随着平行线路近期的陆续开通客流压力将得到缓解；（2）若三号线拆解，三号线北段运能提升，高峰断面客流压力得到快速缓解，体育西路最大换乘量亦将低于疫情前的最大值，但拆解期间有一定负面影响。应综合考虑拆解前后客流影响和施工期间的社会影响，决定三号线未来是否拆解改造。

In order to study the future evolution trend and pressure relief method of passenger flow of Guangzhou Metro Line 3, this paper first analyzes the current passenger flow characteristics of Line 3, and discusses the possibility of optimizing its Y-shaped traffic plan from the perspective of transportation organization. Then, based on the proposed disassembly ideas for Line 3 and Line 10 in the line network planning, this paper analyzes the impact of whether to disassemble Line 3 on passenger flow under different rail network supply conditions in the future by using Guangzhou Urban Transit Model. The results show that: (1) At present, the passenger flow pressure of Line 3 has little room for optimization at the level of transportation organization. In non-disassembly situation, Line 3 will still face greater passenger flow pressure in the next few years. The maximum section full load rate of the north extension line of Line 3 will reach more than 140 %, and the maximum transfer volume of Tiyu Xilu Station will exceed 600,000 passengers / day. However, with the recent opening of parallel lines, the passenger flow pressure will gradually ease; (2) If Line 3 will be disassembled, the transport capacity of the northern section of Line 3 will be improved, the passenger flow pressure of the peak section will be quickly alleviated, and the maximum transfer volume of Tiyu Xilu Station will also be lower than the maximum before the COVID-19 epidemic, but there will be some negative effects during the disassembly period. Therefore, the impact of passenger flow before and after disassembly and the social impact during disassembly should be comprehensively considered to determine whether Line 3 will be disassembled and reconstructed in the future.