初期运营阶段是线路从无到有面向乘客开展运输组织的重要运营阶段，精准预测该阶段客流需求是开展运营安全评估和运营组织筹备的基础性工作。本文针对初期运营客流预测的特点和难点，提出了一套适用于该阶段客流预测的技术路线，并阐述了预测和研究的重点内容。研究认为，初期运营客流预测侧重于对城市及交通发展现状的把握，应充分解读城市及交通发展现状资料，通过挖掘时空大数据掌握交通运行现状特点，研判其短期发展趋势。在此基础上，通过开展各类交通调查建立客流预测和分析模型，进而预测新开通线路预期客流指标，分析其对既有线网客流的影响，并进行关键影响因素的预测敏感性分析。考虑到城轨线网客流分配模型直接影响到预测结果的精度，有必要在宏观需求分析的基础上以线网整体作为研究对象，进行城轨线网客流分析的专题建模。预测成果应紧密联系运营组织和运营安全管理需求，做好特殊运营时段、特殊车站、非常规运营场景的预测和分析工作，并提供完备的预测成果。

The initial operation stage is a crucial stage for a new line with passenger services. Accurate forecasting of passenger flow for initial operation is a fundamental work for operational safety assessment and organization preparation. Considering the characteristics and difficulties of passenger flow forecasting in the stage, this paper proposes a set of forecasting techniques and introduces the key contents and main concerns of forecasting work. It is suggested that passenger flow forecasting should focus on the current situation of urban and urban traffic. It is essential to collect and understand the current information of urban traffic and city itself, mine spatial temporal big data, and analyze short-term development trends. On this basis, various traffic surveys are conducted to establish forecasting models to predict the expected passenger flow indicators of newly opened line and analyze its impacts on the existing network. In addition, a prediction sensitivity analysis should be carried out on key influencing factors. Since the accuracy of the passenger flow assignment model directly affects the accuracy of the prediction results, it is also necessary to build a special model for passenger flow analysis based on a macroscopic demand analysis by taking the entire network as the research object. Finally, the prediction results should meet the requirements of operational organization and safety management , and provide comprehensive prediction results, especially for special operational periods, special stations, and non-routine operational scenarios.

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