交通需求分析和预测是城市轨道交通规划的重要依据。为弥补交通需求和客流预测的不确定性，以石家庄市为例，利用手机大数据从职住分布、职住平衡、出行需求、通勤圈等四个维度剖析城市特征，从城市特征刻画、现状模型校核、发展趋势研判等方面与需求预测模型优势互补，并与巴黎大区横向对标分析，借鉴巴黎大区轨道交通规划和发展的经验，为城市轨道交通规划策略提供参考。

Traffic demand analysis and prediction is an important basis for urban rail transit planning. To compensate for the uncertainty of traffic demand and ridership prediction, this study takes Shijiazhuang as an example, uses mobile phone big data to analyze urban characteristics from the four dimensions of job-housing distribution, job-housing balance, travel demand, and commuting circle, makes up for the deficiency of demand prediction model from the four aspects of urban feature description, current traffic model verification, development trend evaluation, compares with le-de-France, draws on the experience of rail transit planning and development in le-de-France,and provides decision-making reference for the urban rail transit planning.