为实现在不完备风险事件数据基础上对有轨电车运营风险的全面识别和评估，提出将风险事件历史数据与专家经验结合的运营风险评估方法。识别有轨电车运营中存在的所有风险因素，采用层次分析法建立有轨电车运营风险三级评估体系；针对采集的运营风险数据未覆盖所有风险源的问题，对于有数据源支撑的，使用风险矩阵法进行评估，对于无数据源支持的，使用专家打分法进行评估，以对所有风险源进行风险等级划分；最后利用模糊综合评价法实现有轨电车运营风险综合评估。结果表明有轨电车运营风险总体风险可以接受，其中设备、驾驶员和乘客的风险较高，建议有轨电车在日常运营中加强对关键设备的智能维护和健康管理，并加强对乘客、驾驶员的风险防护。

In order to realize the comprehensive identification and assessment of tram operation risk based on incomplete risk event data, an operation risk assessment method combining historical risk event data with expert experience was proposed. Firstly, the possible risk factors in the operation of tram were identified, and the three-level risk assessment system of tram operation was established by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Secondly, in view of the problem that the collected operational risk data did not cover all risk sources, the risk matrix method was used to evaluate risk sources that supported by data , and the expert scoring method was used to evaluate those not supported by data, so as to classify all risk sources into risk levels. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to realize the comprehensive evaluation of tram operation risk. The results show that the overall risk of tram operation is acceptable, and the risk of equipment, driver and passengers are higher. It is suggested to strengthen the maintenance and health management of key equipment in tram operation, and to take appropriate measures to strengthen the risk protection of passengers and drivers.

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上海市国际科技合作基金项目