在界定城市轨道交通政府与社会资本合作模式(public-private partnership，PPP)项目脆弱性概念与分析其形成机理的基础上，通过大量案例和相关文献，识别出对城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性产生影响的多个因素，从敏感性、适应性和暴露性3个维度建立系统动力学模型，定性与定量分析各影响因素间的因果关系，并选取实际案例验证该模型的适用性，并对模型中的常量进行系统动力学仿真分析，识别出城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性的关键影响因素。仿真结果表明，人员沟通有效性、特许权协议合理性和社会资本经济实力会对城市轨道交通PPP项目脆弱性产生显著影响，在项目中要重点关注这3个因素。

By defining the concept of vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP projects and analyzing their formation mechanisms by using a large number of relevant cases and literature, multiple factors affecting the vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP projects were identified. The system dynamic model was constructed from the three dimensions of sensitivity, adaptability, and exposure, and the causal relationships among various influencing factors were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Then, a practical case was selected to verify the applicability of the model, and the constants in the model were simulated and analyzed to identify the key factors affecting the vulnerability of urban rail transit PPP projects. The simulation results showed that the communication effectiveness of personnel, reasonableness of franchise agreement, and economic strength of social capital have a significant impact on the vulnerability of the project, and these three factors should be the focus of the project.

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